WELCOME TO THE HAWAII ISLAND MARKET UPDATE! An accurate market data report that gives you the reader an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in North Kona and Hawaii Island. The ‘Price Direction’ and ‘Rate of Price Change’ are important indicators most are looking for. Note price data is based on past sales. Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and provides clues as to future price direction and  rate of change. The report provides the ‘Pending Ratio’ the ratio of ‘Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory’ as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic. In the following charts note the Pending Ratio over time to illustrate the trends. The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand  versus supply.

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The latest data from Hawaii Information Service for North Kona residential market shows the inventory is down substantially from a year ago. On the demand side we see Pending sales are up from last year’s number. This limited supply and strong demand is now moving price higher. Median Price had remained stable in the $635,000 range for almost two years, now is at $640,000.

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The price range data at the top of page 2 shows 50% of the sales fall in the $400K to  $700K price range. There has been a gain of 50 homes sales in the $500K to $700k price range since last year. The $900K to $1.5M range is also showing a nice increase with 26 more sales than 2018.

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The Hawaii Island  Residential Pending Ratio  is showing just a slight declining trend.    The historical pattern suggests that this should reverse in mid or late January as the winter buying season kicks off.

The percentage of listing on the market for sale of REO (foreclosed) or Short Sales on the market increased slightly for the first time in many months. The increase was seen in all market areas except North Kona.

 

The REO (foreclosed) numbers in Chart 6 show the number of properties owned by Fannie Mae, Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo and Bank of America. The trend here is similar to the percentage of distressed listing in Chart 5. There is a slight increase. It is now 70, haven fallen from  250 in 2010.

The Condo statistics continue to be strong  with a Pending Ratio in ‘Sellers Market’ territory at 65.  Median Prices are  showing  +5%. year/year increase. The inventory of active condos under $1.5M  is down 16% from last year. This low inventory is likely contributing to the slight decline in escrows.

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Like Residential and Condo, the Land stats show a shrinking inventory also.  There are only 99 land listing priced under $1.5M.  Median Price has turned positive after many months of showing decline. It is  up +12%. Like Condos, the pending sales declined some from a year ago.

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Note the Pending Ratio Summary page. This is a great quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for North Kona Residential, Condo, Land and  Hawaii Island.  In this report we see a strong year over year improvement in all categories except the under $400,000 residential market. That market is no longer a reliable indicator because of its limited inventory.

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The Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been  updated with the new 2018 data.        This maintains a data pool of similar homes many of which were new sales or have resold over the years. The total number of sales that make up the data pool now stands at 7,644 in the 23 subdivisions in the study. The year/year price change  for this Mid-level housing group for 2018 is $615,100, up from 2017’s  $587,100. This represents a 5% price increase for 2018.

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As always mahalo Nui to Mike Griggs for allowing fellow industry colleagues to share the Griggs Report published semi-monthly.

Mele Kalikimaka me ka Hau’oli Makahiki Hou 2020 to you and your Ohana this Christmas season in Hawaii Nei.

ME 2019
Renee H. Kraft RB              808-345-2108